"The darkest part of the pandemic"

Osterholm

I could try to explain why, a couple of times a week, I tune into an informal English-language YouTube news broadcast entitled The Reykjavik Grapevine from the capital of a small and somewhat remote North Atlantic island nation. But that would be complicated, so it's best just to say that I do.

And I was struck yesterday by the degree of consternation expressed because an 11th death attributed to the corona virus had occurred as Iceland, like much of Europe, experiences the expected second wave of infections. That's 11 since March In a place with a population estimated at 357,000.

 In Iowa, as of Monday --- where our population is about 3.1 million --- 1,536 deaths have been reported among 107,716 cases of infection and the number of infections reported daily is at an all-time high, just over a thousand per day during the last seven days. In Lucas County, 181 positive cases have been reported --- and six deaths.

Multiply Iceland's population by 10 and you come close to Iowa's population. Multiply the number of deaths in Iceland by 10 and your come up with 111. The degree of concern in the North Atlantic is high and restrictions previously eased are being imposed again. In Iowa, it would appear, we just don't care. 

Europe is experiencing a predicted second wave following the relaxation of restrictions that controlled the initial outbreak. Iowa still is in the midst of an accelerating first wave. In the Far East, nations like China that have the virus under uneasy control at the moment are at work rebuilding their economies.

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All of which brings me to a PBS interview broadcast yesterday with Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, who warns that the "darkest part of the pandemic" is approaching, especially in relatively remote places like Iowa. You can find a transcript here. 

That will come about, he warns, as cold weather settles in, the potential for relatively safe outdoor gatherings decreases and the holidays approach.

The danger intensifies because of what Osterholm calls "pandemic fatigue" combined with "pandemic anger." The former translates as a more relaxed approach to self-restrictions adopted by those who are tired of it all; the latter, to wingnuts who continue to insist that the whole thing is a politically motivated hoax. 

"Pandemic anger," of course, filters down from our current president and, closer to home, his handmaiden, our governor, Ms. Reynolds.

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Lucas County continues to be a relatively lucky place so far as the virus is concerned. Some of that has to do with our rural setting, but much of it has to do with the fact many have taken and continue to take precautions designed to protect both ourselves and others.

That needs to continue, according to Osterholm, since there is no magic bullet and vaccines and effective therapies have not been developed.

If hospitalizations continue to accelerate, he warns, the danger is not a shortage of hospital beds, but instead a limited number of physicians, nurses and support personnel to care for those who are ill.