Methodists and an outcome without "winners"

Some Iowa-related statistics gathered yesterday while spending time (virtually) with the Iowa Conference of the United Methodist Church --- 158,000 Iowans gathered into 767 congregations served by 651 pastors in this land between two rivers.

I was watching off and on via live feed --- and the Iowa Conference Twitter feed --- proceedings in St. Louis where General Conference delegates from around the world late in the day approved 438 to 384 what was called the "Traditional Plan." 

That plan, if fully implemented, leaves in place language added to the denominational Book of Discipline during 1972 that categorizes folks like me as disordered, reaffirms prohibitions against LGBTQ clergy and same-sex marriage, ramps up mandatory punishment for offenders and, in effect, invites progressives and/or the congregations where progressives form a majority to leave.

The "One Church" plan, favored by the denominational leadership and most progressives and centerists, was defeated. It would have removed the anti-gay language from the Book of Discipline and allowed regional and local autonomy on the issues of gay clergy and same-sex marriage.

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The outcome probably was inevitable. Unlike many other protestant denominations, the United Methodist Church has been geographically universal in its polity, so 58 percent of the delegates in St. Louis were from the United States, roughly 30 percent from Africa and 12 percent from elsewhere. U.S. conservatives and delegates from the conservative church in Africa and elsewhere were able to form a coalition strong enough to affirm and strengthen the "traditional" stance.

The general projection is that this massive denomination now will begin to splinter as progressives depart. Perhaps. But splintering most likely would have been the case no matter the outcome. Traditionalists, traditionally, have rarely hesitated  to pick up their toys and stomp away after ending up on the losing end of votes like this. That certainly was the case in my own Episcopal Church and, more recently, the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America and Presbyterian Church USA. 

So I'm guessing that this the beginning of the end of the United Methodist Church as we've known it --- a somewhat flustered mother hen attempting to keep all of her rambunctious chicks under one set of wings.

LGBTQ folks, unless they have a specific stake in the United Methodist Church, are unlikely to linger or join despite assurances that we're still loved --- love the sinner, hate the sin you know. Progressives, unless they're itching for a good fight, are likely to follow. The unaffiliated, young and older, are going to be wary on all fronts --- of a non-inclusive denomination on one hand and a wounded denomination perceived by hard-liners as wishy-washy with an unclear future --- in the United States at least --- on the other.

There are plenty of other churches out there, with established anti-LGBTQ records, more than ready to welcome "traditional" Christians. Methodists, as a rule genuinely nice people, are going to have a hard time ramping up the hate no matter which side of this issue they favored.

The big losers are likely to be in places like Iowa, where Methodist churches have been at the heart of nearly every village for as long as there has been an Iowa. Many of these congregations are quite small now, serving aging memberships. A divided denomination, shrinking clergy pool and diminished resources darken their outlook.